Facebook Rising--Double Top Breakout

I took a position in Facebook stock today on the basis of the Point & Figure chart buy signal (double top breakout).  Holding an unleveraged position in the stock should be less like riding Fortune's wheel than the recent options experience.

Judgement Call

Facebook's uptrend is still intact, but October so far has been a roller coaster, considering the government shut down and all.  My October 48 calls may have been directionally correct, but the timing was not the best, since they expire on Friday.  With the expiration date looming and the implied volatility at 56 earlier today, I decided to protect capital and exit the position at 2.50 for a small loss of .16.  Naturally the market went higher after that.

Holding a position in the stock would have been easier.  Directional plays in options are more like gambling against the pros.  A near-the-money call gives you pretty much a 50-50 chance of losing all your premium.  Sometimes it still seems like a good idea, like adding an extra sail to your sailboat when the wind is right.  Or it can be more like wrestling an alligator.

I remain long Priceline and Google.  I have no position in currencies at the moment.  I am 60% in cash.