A friend of mine has been writing poetry for years, but didn't show much of it until very recently. Poetry writing is so personal that it takes courage to 'show off' (believe me, I heard dat.)
If he consents, I will publish a link to his blog so my many readers can experience these thoughtfully crafted verses.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Monday, August 20, 2007
Peter Drucker Article
Dr. Peter Drucker, the dean of management consultants, met this past winter with members of the US Congress. His remarks are relevant and instructive as we ponder the potential of government in this particularly unpromising election year. We've excerpted them from What's Next: A Newsletter of Emerging Issues and Trends, which is published by the Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future. You can reach the Clearinghouse at 555 House Annex 2, Washington, DC, 20515 Tel. 202/226-3434.
Every 200 or 300 years, there is a very short period when the world suddenly changes - the way it does in a kaleidoscope. This is one of those periods when the old solutions no longer work. One can clearly see new priorities.
Since the French Revolution, we have believed in what I call "salvation by society," the belief that government and society could basically mold the human being. Communism was the extreme manifestation of this secular religion. In this country, that belief peaked in the Kennedy years, and by now, it is pretty much gone. It is gone in the rest of the world, too. And so we have a world that has no ideologies. We can expect that within 20 or 30 years, we will have major new political alignments. In this country, our parties have never been ideological. [...]
For 200 years, all the debates have been over what should be done. Since 1792, nobody has asked, what can government do? Now, for the first time, we are asking the question. Government, like any other institution, has core competencies. We have learned from other institutions what happens when institutions try to do things that don't fit their competence - they usually end up flat on their belly. Of all government [social] programs of the last 40 years, not one has worked. Head Start is the only exception. This is not an American phenomenon; it is worldwide. Japan is an exception, [but] it is beginning to hit Japan. [...]
We started the Core Management Foundation one and one-half years ago with the avowed aim of tripling the effectiveness of nonprofit institutions and doubling their share of the GNP. Those are realistic, but not easy, goals.
One of the great movements in my lifetime among educated people is the need to commit themselves to action. Most people are not satisfied with giving money; we also feel we need to work. That is why there is an enormous surge in the number of unpaid staff, volunteers. The needs are not going to go away. Business is not going to take up the slack, and government cannot.
I think we will depend on the nonprofits. The nonprofit sector is the largest employer in the American economy.
Productivity [in manufacturing and agriculture] has increased 50-fold in the last century ... and is growing as fast as ever. [Now] both sectors together employ fewer than one-sixth of the labor force. [...]
Knowledge has become the central resource. [But] the productivity of knowledge workers is incredibly low. Does anybody here believe that the teacher of 1991 is more productive than the teacher of 1900? The productivity of service workers is even lower.... Over three-fourths of our workforce are service and knowledge workers. By the end of the century, 90 per cent of total workers will be knowledge and service workers. Productivity of knowledge work and dignity of service work are the two great priorities.
Please support this web site ... and thanks if you already are!
All contents copyright (c)1992, 1996 by Context Institute
Every 200 or 300 years, there is a very short period when the world suddenly changes - the way it does in a kaleidoscope. This is one of those periods when the old solutions no longer work. One can clearly see new priorities.
Since the French Revolution, we have believed in what I call "salvation by society," the belief that government and society could basically mold the human being. Communism was the extreme manifestation of this secular religion. In this country, that belief peaked in the Kennedy years, and by now, it is pretty much gone. It is gone in the rest of the world, too. And so we have a world that has no ideologies. We can expect that within 20 or 30 years, we will have major new political alignments. In this country, our parties have never been ideological. [...]
For 200 years, all the debates have been over what should be done. Since 1792, nobody has asked, what can government do? Now, for the first time, we are asking the question. Government, like any other institution, has core competencies. We have learned from other institutions what happens when institutions try to do things that don't fit their competence - they usually end up flat on their belly. Of all government [social] programs of the last 40 years, not one has worked. Head Start is the only exception. This is not an American phenomenon; it is worldwide. Japan is an exception, [but] it is beginning to hit Japan. [...]
We started the Core Management Foundation one and one-half years ago with the avowed aim of tripling the effectiveness of nonprofit institutions and doubling their share of the GNP. Those are realistic, but not easy, goals.
One of the great movements in my lifetime among educated people is the need to commit themselves to action. Most people are not satisfied with giving money; we also feel we need to work. That is why there is an enormous surge in the number of unpaid staff, volunteers. The needs are not going to go away. Business is not going to take up the slack, and government cannot.
I think we will depend on the nonprofits. The nonprofit sector is the largest employer in the American economy.
Productivity [in manufacturing and agriculture] has increased 50-fold in the last century ... and is growing as fast as ever. [Now] both sectors together employ fewer than one-sixth of the labor force. [...]
Knowledge has become the central resource. [But] the productivity of knowledge workers is incredibly low. Does anybody here believe that the teacher of 1991 is more productive than the teacher of 1900? The productivity of service workers is even lower.... Over three-fourths of our workforce are service and knowledge workers. By the end of the century, 90 per cent of total workers will be knowledge and service workers. Productivity of knowledge work and dignity of service work are the two great priorities.
Please support this web site ... and thanks if you already are!
All contents copyright (c)1992, 1996 by Context Institute
Friday, November 10, 2006
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Wednesday, February 15, 2006
FRB: Monetary Policy Report to the Congress - February 15, 2006
FRB: Monetary Policy Report to the Congress - February 15, 2006
Follow the link to see the text of the new Fed Chairman's first report to the Congress. I can tell you that the currency markets are very interested.
U.S. Treasury - Treasury International Capital System - Home Page
U.S. Treasury - Treasury International Capital System - Home Page
The current account deficit is still being comfortably funded despite news media hysteria. US securities of $185 billion were bought with international capital inflows last year above and beyond the current account deficit. --tb
Thursday, February 02, 2006
FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Acceptance of honorary degree from New York University--December 14, 2005
FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Acceptance of honorary degree from New York University--December 14, 2005
"Open and free markets are the antithesis of violence." I like that quote.
"Open and free markets are the antithesis of violence." I like that quote.
Friday, January 27, 2006
Tai Chi Currency Trading
Stay out of the market and don't get hit. Stick and follow the charging elephant.
Friday, January 20, 2006
New Zealand Banker Predicts Euro's fall to $1.19 in a week
Bloomberg.com: Currencies: "The euro will probably decline because it has been unable to extend its 2 percent advance this year through a key level on charts traders watch to predict price movements, said Sue Trinh, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd.
``The continued failure to breach topside resistance at $1.22 will see some investors turn bearish on the single currency,'' said Trinh, who is based in Wellington. A resistance level is a price where sell orders may be clustered.
The euro may fall to $1.19 within a week, she said"
``The continued failure to breach topside resistance at $1.22 will see some investors turn bearish on the single currency,'' said Trinh, who is based in Wellington. A resistance level is a price where sell orders may be clustered.
The euro may fall to $1.19 within a week, she said"
Thursday, January 19, 2006
Currencies: Dollar lifted late in day after Guynn speech - Financial - Financial Services - Currencies
Currencies: Dollar lifted late in day after Guynn speech - Financial - Financial Services - Currencies: "'Any time you have credible evidence of terrorism in the U.S. or abroad, it works against the dollar,' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency analyst at Bank of New York."
Monday, January 02, 2006
Bloomberg.com: Market Insight
Bloomberg.com: Market Insight
Click on the red text to go to the link. It's kind of a report of who won the superbowl of currency forecasting. Merrill Lynch, which won in 2004, fell to 38th this year. Merrill Lynch is the sixth-biggest currency trader on the planet.
Click on the red text to go to the link. It's kind of a report of who won the superbowl of currency forecasting. Merrill Lynch, which won in 2004, fell to 38th this year. Merrill Lynch is the sixth-biggest currency trader on the planet.
Buffett and major traders still see a dip in dollar - Marketplace by Bloomberg - International Herald Tribune
Buffett and major traders still see a dip in dollar - Marketplace by Bloomberg - International Herald Tribune
Buffett reduced his bets on the dollar's decline to $16.5 billion from $21.5 billion in June, according to a statement from Berkshire Hathaway on Nov. 4. The company, which had $926 million of pretax currency losses in the first half, used forward contracts, or agreements to purchase or sell a currency in the future at a preset price.
. . . "The story of the current account deficit allowed traders and analysts to justify any currency prices," said Steve Pearson, chief currency strategist in London at HBOS, a large lender. "Sentiment got overly bearish on the dollar."
Pearson was the most accurate forecaster of exchange rates in the year that ended on Sept. 30.
For 2006, he expects the euro to fall to $1.08.
Buffett reduced his bets on the dollar's decline to $16.5 billion from $21.5 billion in June, according to a statement from Berkshire Hathaway on Nov. 4. The company, which had $926 million of pretax currency losses in the first half, used forward contracts, or agreements to purchase or sell a currency in the future at a preset price.
. . . "The story of the current account deficit allowed traders and analysts to justify any currency prices," said Steve Pearson, chief currency strategist in London at HBOS, a large lender. "Sentiment got overly bearish on the dollar."
Pearson was the most accurate forecaster of exchange rates in the year that ended on Sept. 30.
For 2006, he expects the euro to fall to $1.08.
Saturday, December 31, 2005
Candlesticks, Bamboo Sticks
Currency trading using candlestick charts is similar to observing a bamboo thicket.
But without the serenity. A 30-minute candlestick chart sometimes gives a pattern like the picture. When it does, the market is consolidating quietly. But when the momentum shifts, one must act accordingly. King Kong may have entered your quiet grove.
But without the serenity. A 30-minute candlestick chart sometimes gives a pattern like the picture. When it does, the market is consolidating quietly. But when the momentum shifts, one must act accordingly. King Kong may have entered your quiet grove.
Friday, December 30, 2005
Fine Line
Sometimes trading currency reminds me of this icy bridge. You can see your way ahead for a few feet and it is treacherous, but beyond that it gets mysterious. As Paul McCartney says in his recent song, Fine Line: There is a fine line/ Between recklessness and courage/ It's about time/ You understood which road to take/ It's a fine line/ And your decision makes a difference/ Get it wrong and you'll be making a big mistake//
Thursday, December 29, 2005
Meat Slicer
My year in England spanned fall 1975 to fall 1976. I enjoyed the local traditions, and one especially was the costume of the butcher. I'm glad to see that some things never change. This photo was uploaded to the web today. Trading currency markets is a lot like being a butcher. You take the raw meat and put it in little packages for your customers. It is a traditional occupation with no end in sight. Some people find it exciting?
Monday, December 05, 2005
PIMCO Manages over $463 billion in Assets
Bill Gross, managing director of PIMCO, widely regarded as the country's leading fixed income authority, may be worth a listen when he publishes his outlook.
Friday, December 02, 2005
FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Budget policy--December 2, 2005
Well worth reading and studying. Alan Greenspan is having a farewell party in London this weekend at the G-7 meeting. The text is at www.federalreserve.gov
Thursday, December 01, 2005
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
PIMCO Bonds - IO December 2005
I learned today that William H. Gross, Managing Director of PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Company) is known as a Bond Guru.
He has just published at www.picmo.com his investment outlook for the next year. One could do worse as far as prophesies go. It is only 4 pages. Well worth a look.
He has just published at www.picmo.com his investment outlook for the next year. One could do worse as far as prophesies go. It is only 4 pages. Well worth a look.
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