Tom's Tea Leaves

A change worth noting today.  Bull correction in the New York Stock Exchange Bullish Percent Index.  Defense!  A good time to take risk off the table.

Tom's Tea Leaves

A bearish development.  The S&P500 daily point & figure chart shows a bearish triangle breakdown.

Tom's Tea Leaves

Charts courtesy of Stockcharts.com

Here is the EEM chart.  You can get a bigger view if you click on the picture.

This is the SPY chart, looking mildly bearish.

Recession Probabilities

Bill Gross has a different opinion from Bill Dudley. Both men are very smart. Both have axes to grind.

(Reuters) - Despite "anemic" U.S. growth so far this year, the risk of a double-dip recession is "quite low", a top Federal Reserve policymaker said on Thursday.

"The risk of a recession is somewhat higher than it was six months ago. That said, I think the risk of a recession is still quite low," William Dudley, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, told New Jersey business leaders.

Dudley said that only some of the restraints on growth, such as high oil prices and Japan's earthquake in the first half of the year, can be considered temporary.

"The risks have risen a little bit, but I think we very much still expect the economy to recover. We expect ... growth to be significantly firmer than it was during the first half of the year," he said. "But obviously there is some concern.

The central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took the unprecedented step last week of promising to keep interest rates near zero for a set period of time - at least until mid-2013. The Fed also said it was weighing other options to help strengthen a weak recovery.

Warren Buffet's Latest Letter to Shareholders

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2010ltr.pdf

Chairman Bernanke's Testimony before the Senate

March 1, 2011

What he said.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20110301a.pdf

What the reaction was.

OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria Interview

Wordsworth to the Rescue

Merkel says Multiculturalism has failed totally

Germany and the Failure of Multiculturalism is republished with permission of STRATFOR.

Quo Vadis Ray Ozzie?

Article from ZD Net


Ray Ozzie's Blog

1999 Nobel Laureate Robert Mundell on Bloomberg

Expert on the world monetary system gives advice.

His Nobel Lecture is available here.

Geithner on China

Nuanced.

Steven Segal's Wu Wei

You gotta love it.

Wu Wei Trading is not a Black Box

Natural skill. Something to think about, or possibly, something not to think about.

Stephen Green--Good Value

Read this book if you get a chance.

He is an Episcopal priest who is also chairman of HSBC, (formerly known as Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HSBC

He begins his book with a quote from T.S. Eliot's Four Quartets, likes Tielhard de Chardin's Phenomenology of Man better than Thomas Friedman's The World Is Flat. He studied politics, economics and philosophy at Oxford. Later he got a masters degree at MIT. He is very literate and a good writer. In January 2011, he will leave his HSBC duties to become the UK's Minister of State for Trade and Investment--at no pay.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Green_(banker)

Weekend Entertainment

Be Water, My Friend ---Bruce Lee

Jung's Wisdom

Part of man is beyond space and time. Look forward to the adventure.

Have a Relaxing Weekend

Nice water features at this botanical garden.

Letting off Steam on a Friday