Friday, February 09, 2018

Jan Hatzius Forecasts Bond Yields And More


Hatzius expects 4 rate increases from the Fed.  Unemployment near 3.5 percent by year end.  He looks for 2.8 percent GDP expansion this year.  He expects the 10 year Treasury yield to stabilize near where it is now and finish the year at 3 percent.


Click Here to Read Hatzius on Fed Raising Interest Rates

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Bitcoin Futures Begin Trading on CFE

Image result for bitcoin images


Whatever it is, Bitcoin is making a lot of noise these days.  All of the financial gurus I know have dismissed it as a bubble or worse.  And yet the Chicago Board Options Exchange has launched Bitcoin Futures on their Futures Exchange.  The symbol is XBT and the contracts are each month.  January, for example, would be XBTF18. 

I find it interesting that a person can now find out what the price of Bitcoin is in terms of Dollars at any time he wants.  The contract is pretty easy to understand.  The size is one Bitcoin.  The initial margin requirement is currently $20,399.50.  The maintenance margin is $18,545.00.  The trades settle for cash.  The last trading day for the January contract is 1/17/2018.

I wouldn't recommend trading Bitcoin Futures unless you are willing to risk $30-50 grand, but I enjoy being able to see what the market is doing. 



Friday, August 26, 2016

Yellen's Jackson Hole Speech



Here is what she said.

Click here for the pdf of the speech.

So far, about 25 minutes after the speech became available, the dollar is a bit weaker across the board, and gold is about 1% higher.

Monday, March 21, 2016

Sunday, November 15, 2015

IMF Elevates Renminbi to SDR Status


















You may not have noticed because of all the hoohah in Paris, but this is likely to be more influential.

Statement by Ms. Christine Lagarde on IMF Review of SDR Basket of Currencies

Press Release No. 15/513
November 13, 2015

Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued the following statement today:
"The staff of the IMF has today issued a paper to the Executive Board on the quinquennial review of the SDR. A key focus of the Board review is whether the Chinese renminbi (RMB), which continues to meet the export criterion for inclusion in the SDR basket, also meets the other existing criterion, that the currency be “freely usable”, which is defined as being “widely used” for international transactions and “widely traded” in the principal foreign exchange markets.
"In the paper, IMF staff assesses that the RMB meets the requirements to be a “freely usable” currency and, accordingly, the staff proposes that the Executive Board determine the RMB to be freely usable and include it in the SDR basket as a fifth currency, along with the British pound, euro, Japanese yen, and the U.S. dollar. The staff also finds that the Chinese authorities have addressed all remaining operational issues identified in an initial staff analysis submitted to the Executive Board in July.
"I support the staff’s findings. The decision, of course, on whether the RMB should be included in the SDR basket rests with the IMF’s Executive Board. I will chair a meeting of the Board to consider the issue on November 30."

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Tuesday, September 08, 2015

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Oil Prices Not Listening to Goldman Sachs Head of Commodities--Move Higher
























Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank has an explanation that may last at least until the Crude Oil Inventories number comes out at 9:30 central time.

https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/crude-oil-soars-as-focus-switches-from-opec-to-the-us-5139337

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

Shenzhen Market P/E Ratio 66--Classic Asset Bubble. Get ready for a correction
















Bill Gross comments make news at Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-04/bond-rout-not-enough-for-gross-as-china-stocks-seen-next-to-drop

Shenzhen Exchange Web Page

http://www.szse.cn/main/en/MarketStatistics/MarketOverview/

No way I know for Joe Blow to trade the Shenzhen Composite yet.  But here are a handful of China ETFs to look at.  EWH, FXI, ASHR, PEK, and CNXT.

Sunday, June 07, 2015

Goldman Forecasts Oil Price at $50 by year end

















Jeff Currie ventured his year-end forecast of $50 after this week's OPEC meeting.  West Texas Intermediate Crude spot price is currently $58.88.  If he is right, there would be no rush to buy USO shares yet.  The 30-week moving average and the current price are converging, but may not cross for several months if the oil price heads lower between now and the end of the year.

http://www.benzinga.com/media/cnbc/15/06/5573006/goldman-sachs-oil-will-be-at-45-in-october-and-50-by-year-end

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Oil Bottum Revisited

Negative Duration--The Long and Short of It













When interest rates eventually start rising, the price of bonds will fall.  The longer the duration of the bond, the steeper the decline.  Portfolio managers are using some tools to decrease the "duration" of their portfolios.  The following link introduces this subject of negative duration and how it is possible.

Morningstar Article on Negative Duration

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Gundlach and Gross are Drooling about Shorting the German Bund

Crude Oil Continues to Bottom. Could be time to buy soon.























Although there is no magic in the 30-week simple moving average,  there must be some kind of bottom in place for a price to cross over this moving average from below.  The price of USO fell below its 30-week moving average last July and has remained there for the nine months since.  But now the indicator has moved down below $22, while the price closed today around $20.50.  I expect to see the price of USO cross back over its 30-week average in a few weeks.  When this technical event occurs, it might be a better time to buy crude oil than it has been for quite some time.