Thursday, July 08, 2010

Five Year Crude Chart and CRB Chart



Below is a link to the CRB Index chart for 5 years.

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=%24CRB&style=technical&p=WO&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=%24WTIC&a1=on&o2=&o3=&x=35&y=12&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump


Here is a link to the Federal Reserve's statement regarding M3 issued March 9, 2006


http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm


What James Turk says appears in a blog

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/7/8_James_Turk_-_Threat_To_The_US_Dollar.html

His concern about M3 no longer being reported is that it makes it hard to compare the numbers to those of the early 1930s. He further complains that Eurodollars, a major M3 component, is particularly difficult to model. While this may be true, it is not relevant to the 1930s because at that time there were no Eurodollars. So how would this number be helpful?

His statistical evidence for inflation is misleading, if not false. Please compare his statements about oil prices and CRB Index with the historical information in the charts above. He fails to mention that oil prices are about 50% lower today than they were at their height, a few months before he started his comparison.

James Turk, founder of goldmoney.com, may be a good gold and silver salesman, but his statistical arguments are not cogent.


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