A tool for predicting recessions is the inverted yield curve. Jonathan Wright's Model comes to us from the following 2006 paper. Warning: there is calculus in it.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2006/200607/200607pap.pdf
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2006/200607/200607pap.pdf
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