Six Bill Gross Forecasts for 2013

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/12/31/the-bond-kings-fearless-forecasts-for-2013/?mod=WSJBlog&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Fmarketbeat%2Ffeed+%28WSJ.com%3A+MarketBeat+Blog%29

Probability 97% Bearish

If we assume that the market moves randomly (why not?), each day it has a 50% chance of being up and a 50% chance of being down.  In such a world, the probability (P) that the market would be down five days in a row, such as it was the past 5 days would be P(.5) to the 5th power.  This works out to about a 3% chance.

Although we still assume that on any given day there is a 50% chance the market will be up or down, the market's behavior the past week has been bearish.  Only 3% chance it was random.

VIX turns bearish.

According to Larry McMillan, a VIX close above 22 is bearish.
Blame the TV for whipping up fiscal cliff hysteria.

http://www.optionstrategist.com/weekly-charts?utm_source=Email+Updater&utm_campaign=233a2e6ebd-Updater12_28_2012&utm_medium=email&mc_cid=233a2e6ebd&mc_eid=640d05de85

Morgan Stanley--Top 10 Trades for 2013

http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanleys-top-10-trades-for-2013-2012-12#overweight-stocks-in-asian-markets-ex-japan-1

Some Reading for the Holidays

IMF External Sector Report

Updated Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates

 

http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/pb/pb12-23.pdf

 

Bull Confirmed--NYSE Bullish % Index

The Latest from Hans Redeker re: EUR/USD

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-17/euro-may-rise-to-1-34-on-resistance-break-technical-analysis.html

An Important Interview with Jan Hatzius

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldmans-jan-hatzius-on-sectoral-balances-2012-12

With Tax Increases on the Horizon, Munis Look Good

Blackrock's Peter Hayes makes a good case, and I like that guy's haircut.

Good Advice from Blackrock and Good Haircut

Goldman Sachs | Economic Outlook 2013 - Jan Hatzius on the 2013 Global Economic Forecast

Goldman Sachs | Economic Outlook 2013 - Jan Hatzius on the 2013 Global Economic Forecast

Regulation Blues

GFT Forex shuts down its retail operations in the US and Japan.  Although it was one of the 5 largest, regulation changes have made in impossible to make money with less than $50 billion a month.  They apologize for the inconvenience.  Now that my account is closed, I'm really feeling protected.  Thanks, Big Government.

http://www.fx-mm.com/20988/news/gft-abandons-us-and-japan-retail-fx-markets/