Probability 97% Bearish

If we assume that the market moves randomly (why not?), each day it has a 50% chance of being up and a 50% chance of being down.  In such a world, the probability (P) that the market would be down five days in a row, such as it was the past 5 days would be P(.5) to the 5th power.  This works out to about a 3% chance.

Although we still assume that on any given day there is a 50% chance the market will be up or down, the market's behavior the past week has been bearish.  Only 3% chance it was random.