http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=anEJaU2BEfvk&refer=news_index
The consensus was for a rise to 14.5. Instead, the number was 25.3, indicating stronger than expected business climate. The dollar strengthened immediately. A surprise will do that. Others attribute the dollar's sudden strengthening to a resurfacing of the rumor that Osama Bin Laden has been captured. Take your pick. In the past hour the dollar has improved against the Euro by nearly 100 pips.
Thursday, April 21, 2005
FRB: Speech, Ferguson—-U.S. Current Account Deficit: Causes and Consequences—-April 20, 2005
FRB: Speech, Ferguson—-U.S. Current Account Deficit: Causes and Consequences—-April 20, 2005
This is very worthwhile reading. It includes footnotes, charts, and comes from a good source. See his bio at the link
This is very worthwhile reading. It includes footnotes, charts, and comes from a good source. See his bio at the link
Monday, April 18, 2005
UofT G8 Information Centre: G7 Finance Ministers
UofT G8 Information Centre: G7 Finance Ministers
I find this website at University of Toronto gives you the statements from G7 meetings. You can read for yourself and see what they say without the spins from the helpful news media.
I find this website at University of Toronto gives you the statements from G7 meetings. You can read for yourself and see what they say without the spins from the helpful news media.
Tuesday, April 12, 2005
FRB: FOMC Minutes--March 22, 2005
FRB: FOMC Minutes--March 22, 2005
The minutes are now available to the public. That means me and you. Read them at the link. Find out if interest rates are going up faster or not. These minutes can cause the currency markets to twitter or untwitter.
The minutes are now available to the public. That means me and you. Read them at the link. Find out if interest rates are going up faster or not. These minutes can cause the currency markets to twitter or untwitter.
Monday, April 11, 2005
Commitments of Traders
http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm
Commitments of Traders may not sound at first like a technical term. It may sound like a term describing a relationship of questionable monogamy. Nevertheless, the Commitments of Traders, or COT, as it is sometimes called, is a weekly report published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (a government agency). It contains a plethora of information both for the most recent reporting period and historical data back to 1986. It is available on line at the link.
Most valuable is probably the information concerning the Commercial holdings. If I were considering taking a position in a currency, I would want to know if the commercials are net long or short that currency. In the Yen, for example, the commercials would be major financial institutions. They are usually on the right side of the market. So if you are interested in seeing what the big money is doing, look there. You could do as the commercials and be considered to have some financial wisdom. As of April 5 the commercials were net long the Yen by a wide margin. Last month they were net short through March 15.
Commitments of Traders may not sound at first like a technical term. It may sound like a term describing a relationship of questionable monogamy. Nevertheless, the Commitments of Traders, or COT, as it is sometimes called, is a weekly report published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (a government agency). It contains a plethora of information both for the most recent reporting period and historical data back to 1986. It is available on line at the link.
Most valuable is probably the information concerning the Commercial holdings. If I were considering taking a position in a currency, I would want to know if the commercials are net long or short that currency. In the Yen, for example, the commercials would be major financial institutions. They are usually on the right side of the market. So if you are interested in seeing what the big money is doing, look there. You could do as the commercials and be considered to have some financial wisdom. As of April 5 the commercials were net long the Yen by a wide margin. Last month they were net short through March 15.
Wednesday, April 06, 2005
FRB: Testimony, Greenspan -- Regulatory reform of the government-sponsored enterprises -- April 6, 2005
FRB: Testimony, Greenspan -- Regulatory reform of the government-sponsored enterprises -- April 6, 2005
These remarks did not cause the dollar to strengthen. But, as always, they are an education. For example, here we learn that the combined portfolios of Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae were $1.38 trillion, or 23 percent of the home mortgage market as of 2003. Doing the math, the 2003 home mortgage market was $6 trillion!
These remarks did not cause the dollar to strengthen. But, as always, they are an education. For example, here we learn that the combined portfolios of Ginnie Mae and Fannie Mae were $1.38 trillion, or 23 percent of the home mortgage market as of 2003. Doing the math, the 2003 home mortgage market was $6 trillion!
Tuesday, April 05, 2005
FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Energy--April 5, 2005
FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Energy--April 5, 2005
Greenspan Appears in San Antonio (via satellite). His remarks did not push the dollar higher today. But he wasn't talking about raising interest rates.
Greenspan Appears in San Antonio (via satellite). His remarks did not push the dollar higher today. But he wasn't talking about raising interest rates.
Monday, April 04, 2005
William Poole's Saturday Remarks at Princeton University
Latest News and Financial Information | Reuters.com
William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is known as an inflation hawk. He is also one of the 20 most influential people in Foreign Exchange markets. So when he speaks, sometimes the market moves. When the non-farm payroll number was less than expected, the market was wondering if the Fed would be able to raise interest rates more quickly than the quarter point "measured pace" of the past few months. Poole's remarks seem to indicate a yes, to the hyper imagination of the currency market.
Lately, remarks from the Fed have been bullish for the dollar. With several appearances from Alan Greenspan this week, I predict a good week for the greenback.
William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is known as an inflation hawk. He is also one of the 20 most influential people in Foreign Exchange markets. So when he speaks, sometimes the market moves. When the non-farm payroll number was less than expected, the market was wondering if the Fed would be able to raise interest rates more quickly than the quarter point "measured pace" of the past few months. Poole's remarks seem to indicate a yes, to the hyper imagination of the currency market.
Lately, remarks from the Fed have been bullish for the dollar. With several appearances from Alan Greenspan this week, I predict a good week for the greenback.
Institute for Supply Management figures can move the market
ROB042005.pdf (application/pdf Object)
The dollar is stronger today. After the non-farm payroll report last week came out weaker than expected--a number which creates the most volatility in the market of anything that happens monthly--the continued strength in the dollar is something of a puzzle.
Enter the ISM number--a measure of the condition of the economy. The higher than expected ISM number shows the American economy is expanding. For those who try to explain the market's movements in terms of the flow of economic indicators through the news, the ISM number is something to watch more closely than the screaming headlines. Check out the link.
The dollar is stronger today. After the non-farm payroll report last week came out weaker than expected--a number which creates the most volatility in the market of anything that happens monthly--the continued strength in the dollar is something of a puzzle.
Enter the ISM number--a measure of the condition of the economy. The higher than expected ISM number shows the American economy is expanding. For those who try to explain the market's movements in terms of the flow of economic indicators through the news, the ISM number is something to watch more closely than the screaming headlines. Check out the link.
Saturday, April 02, 2005
Origin of Cable as synonym for British Pound?
What was the Exchange Rate Then?
A little economic history for you. My take on it is that the pound is called 'cable' because the foreign exchange market was mostly cable transfers of British pounds up until 1913 or so.
A little economic history for you. My take on it is that the pound is called 'cable' because the foreign exchange market was mostly cable transfers of British pounds up until 1913 or so.
Friday, April 01, 2005
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