Tuesday, August 30, 2005

Earnings Estimate Revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices.

Go to the link and read this free report. The Zack's Rank--Harnessing the Power of Earnings Estimate Revisions.

Food for thought.

Sunday, August 28, 2005

Katrina and the Price of Oil--The Dollar

Katrina may wreak considerable damage to the oil drilling rigs in the gulf. She may possibly damage the refining capacity in the area as well. This could temporarily jimmy the supply and demand for oil, causing an increase in the price of oil. This may be bearish for the dollar near term.

Or not. It's still a crapshoot.

Monday, August 22, 2005

Tom Buchanan's Trading Room

Looking into the future, which is always a crapshoot, but big and small business always have to do it, Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate of average oil prices for the next five years from $45 (its previous estimate set earlier this year) to $60 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate Crude. Compare this to Barclay's Capital which forecasts that WTI will remain above $50, Merrill Lynch forecasts $45 and Deutsche Bank estimates $38-40. Thus saith Friday's Financial Times.

It also says that while cash reserves have been accumulating in the oil industry, the rate of reinvestment has not yet picked up. The cost of development projects has doubled and is now in the tens of billions. With that much money on the line, the future forecasts have to be fairly accurate. Where is Nicky Engel when you need him?

What do it mean?