St. Louis Fed Shows Household Credit Debt Increasing Again

A sign that economic recovery is picking up speed.  Is it an increased confidence or families needing to borrow again willy nilly?

Market Loves Taper--Let The Santa Claus Rally Proceed

Today's Federal Reserve Statement

Gilead is a Strong Buy

Big Pharma isn't going anywhere.  Get used to it.  Healthcare is science, business and politics all rolled into one.  Standard and Poors gives Gilead a Strong Buy rating.  The point and figure chart gave a buy signal today.  Check the link for more information.

Standard and Poors Report on Gilead

I took a position in Gilead today.

Facebook Not Rising

It seems that Facebook is not granting me any favors.  By my risk management procedure, I closed the position.  I am still happy with my positions in Google and Priceline.  I have no currency position at the moment, so by default I am long the US$.  I still like Wolfram Alpha's analysis of stocks and portfolios.

Facebook Rising--Double Top Breakout

I took a position in Facebook stock today on the basis of the Point & Figure chart buy signal (double top breakout).  Holding an unleveraged position in the stock should be less like riding Fortune's wheel than the recent options experience.

Judgement Call

Facebook's uptrend is still intact, but October so far has been a roller coaster, considering the government shut down and all.  My October 48 calls may have been directionally correct, but the timing was not the best, since they expire on Friday.  With the expiration date looming and the implied volatility at 56 earlier today, I decided to protect capital and exit the position at 2.50 for a small loss of .16.  Naturally the market went higher after that.

Holding a position in the stock would have been easier.  Directional plays in options are more like gambling against the pros.  A near-the-money call gives you pretty much a 50-50 chance of losing all your premium.  Sometimes it still seems like a good idea, like adding an extra sail to your sailboat when the wind is right.  Or it can be more like wrestling an alligator.

I remain long Priceline and Google.  I have no position in currencies at the moment.  I am 60% in cash.

Dovish Fed Creams Dollar

After the market had "baked-in" a small taper and a likely Larry Summers Fed, surprise surprise!  The clock has been turned back. Ten-year bond rates had gotten ahead of themselves, resulting in too much dollar strength.  Emerging markets were wilting at the prospect of tightening monetary conditions.

The equity market bull is back for the short term.  I took positions today in Google and Priceline.  I expect to be short the US$ soon.  

Druckenmiller Not Short AUD/USD Any More--Waits for new Fed Chairman

I am no longer short AUD/USD.

Action Determines Character

With EPD continuing its "high pole warning" signal, I closed my position and retreated to the sidelines waiting character revealing actions in the Middle East.

I have no positions in the stock market for now.  I remain short the AUD/USD.  I attribute this week's rally in the OZ to the market pricing-in the change of government after tomorrow's election.  The more conservative government may be good for the Australian $, but time will tell.

Google Gives Another Sell Signal

I closed my position in GOOG near the close today based on
the point and figure chart sell signal, the 13% jump in the VIX,
and the market's agitation over the Syrian situation.

Oil is up 3%, gold and silver are up, and 10-year treasury note yields
are lower today.

Lagarde at Jackson Hole

Click here for Lagarde's story

I remain long EPD and GOOG.  Short the AUD/USD.  Subject to change.

Mobile Internet Opportunities

Both Facebook and Apple are on buy signals in the Point & Figure way of looking at things.  Both stocks have been beaten down for the past year, and I'm inclined to give them a green light on these signals.  Disclaimers, etc.

Once More Into The Beach

I decided to move back into the market this week.  I took a position in Enterprises Products (EPD), which owns 50% of the Seaway Pipeline, and a position in Google, after their disappointing earnings report caused the price to drop.

I remain short the AUD/USD.

Monetary Policy Report

Get the full report here.  Read it and draw your own conclusions, or notice that the US$ weakened on the release of the report.  Bernanke has yet to begin his testimony.  He will have many listening carefully.

Click here for the full report from the Federal Reserve

Still Looks Toppy To Me

The New York Bullish Percent Index was created by A.W. Cohen,  the first editor of Chartcraft, in 1955.  Mr. Cohen was trying to create a market indicator that was bullish at the bottom and bearish at the top.  A worthy endeavor.  Trend charts are always bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom.  So are our emotions. When more than seventy percent of the New York Stock Exchange stocks are on buy signals,we have a bullish situation.  When the P&F chart reverses to a column of Os and breaks below 70, this generates a bear signal.  According to Thomas Dorsey (Point & Figure Charting) this is a high risk condition, calling for defensive measures, such as puts, not buying stocks, going short, etc.  This indicator gave a "Bear Confirmed" signal on June 24.  So the light turned red.   The index dropped as low as 64.  Today, however, the chart reversed to a column of Xs, closing at the 70 percent mark.  Hence the designation "Bear Correction on null," since 70 is the null point that must be crossed.

What does it mean?  The way I read it, the stockmarket still looks toppy to me.  The bias is bullish once again, but things could go either way as soon as the next week.

I'm preparing to send the offense back in.  I remain short the AUD/USD, despite the dollar's fall after Bernanke's dovish comments, yesterday.  The main story is still the Fed's next move, when it will be and what it will be.

IMF World Economic Outlook Update--Lowering Expectations a Bit

Click here to explore this data.

June 25 VIX Point & Figure Reversal

Looks like I went for the fake.  The relatively high VIX readings on June 20 spooked me into standing aside to see which way the market was going.  So far, it looks like a normal bounce, rather than a 'correction.'  On June 25, the Point & Figure chart for the VIX signaled a downward move, indicating reduced fear.

Larry McMillan, one of my favorite pundits, is making more bullish sounds, "In summary, it seems almost certain that the indicators will turn bullish, because the put-call ratio signals are generally so dominant. However, their signals can be early, so we would not declare that the intermediate-term bullish trend has resumed, unless $SPX closed above resistance at 1630."

With half the trading day gone, the early gains are fading, but the S&P500 is holding above 1630 at around 1638.

I remain short the AUD/USD and have not yet re-entered the stock market.

VIX on. Risk off.

The VIX broke out of a triple top on the Point & Figure chart today.  Additionally, the S&P500 Index closed below the 1600 support level.  There seems to be risk of further correction.  I took profits in my long positions in stocks.  I will stand aside and see what happens.  I remain short the AUD/USD.

Druckenmiller Interview

The following interview appeared on ZeroHedge today.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-14/stanley-druckenmiller-chinas-future-and-investing-new-normal

No Longer Short the Yen

Since June 6 I am no longer short Yen.  I remain short AUD/USD.

Risk Off on Friday

Friday I took half my short position in Yen off the table.  

Staying Short the Yen and AUD/USD over the Weekend

Toyota Stock looking good still, with cheaper yen, despite recent gains.

Self-made Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Bets Against AUD/USD

“We think the Australian dollar will come down and will come down hard”

Stanley Druckenmiller - Duquesne Family Office

• Stock Idea - Long GOOG
• Commences by calling QE a nuclear weapon and believes that Bernanke has embarked on the wrong policy. But he notes that listening to Bernanke shows that he's not going "wobbly anytime."
• No condition of Bear market until Fed changes - so expect the market to continue to rise.
• On commodities, he says that the super-cycle is ending and believes that their a "poisonous cocktail" in commodities when it comes to China.
• He says he thinks the AUD will sell-off hard.
• He is bullish onGOOG  - says that its a great tech company and notes some of their new technologies pushing from glass to auto.

Complete Ira Sohn Conference Highlights

Gold Price Support Caves

Not sure how Hannity will explain this.  Goldman is suggesting shorting gold.

Bank of Japan's Kuroda Acts to Weaken Yen (fight deflation)

Forbes Comment on New Japanese QE



Note:  The Yen Continues Weakening Since Abe's Election

Elections May Be A Most Important Indicator For Currency Markets

Tesla Sales Beat Projections

Stock Price Jumps 18%!  I guess Model S is a success, while Chevy Volt is not.

Light Bulbs

What happened to my 100-watt lightbulbs?

The Problem

A possible solution.  Cree LED lightbulbs.

CREE earnings and stock price rise

Gold Reaches Bearish Objective on P&F Chart--$1560

Look for Support around Here.

PIMCO's new ETF, FORX

It should be on your radar.  The managers are heavily experienced and geeky.

http://www.pimcoetfs.com/Funds/Pages/FORX.aspx

A Simple Markov Chain Model of the Market

A Markov Chain has the beauty of not depending on
history, but solely on the present state of the system
and probabilities.

A simple concept, but as this book shows, you can very soon be way in the deep end of the pool!

Bull Confirmed since Dec 20--Fiscal Cliff Whipsaw Not On NYSE Bullish Percent Index Radar

Jacob Lew--Obama's Next Treasury Sec?

Not a great communicator.  A good ass-kisser and an ass.

Larry Fink of Blackrock--Our Next Treasury Sec?

I like this guy.

Meredith Whitney Bullish? Hello.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000136283