Saturday, July 10, 2010

Read What Congress Should Be Reading This Weekend


What did Treas Sec Geithner say about China exchange rates, etc.

Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies

Friday, July 09, 2010

On Fortune's cap we are not the very button. --Shakespeare


CAD: Another Blowout Employment Number | Kathy Lien | FX360.com

The good news on the Canadian job front supports the recent IMF forecast of the continuing global recovery. Which way is Fortune's wheel turning?

IMF Survey Magazine from July 8

Thursday, July 08, 2010

Five Year Crude Chart and CRB Chart



Below is a link to the CRB Index chart for 5 years.

http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=%24CRB&style=technical&p=WO&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=CANDLE&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&po=1&o1=%24WTIC&a1=on&o2=&o3=&x=35&y=12&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump


Here is a link to the Federal Reserve's statement regarding M3 issued March 9, 2006


http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm


What James Turk says appears in a blog

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/7/8_James_Turk_-_Threat_To_The_US_Dollar.html

His concern about M3 no longer being reported is that it makes it hard to compare the numbers to those of the early 1930s. He further complains that Eurodollars, a major M3 component, is particularly difficult to model. While this may be true, it is not relevant to the 1930s because at that time there were no Eurodollars. So how would this number be helpful?

His statistical evidence for inflation is misleading, if not false. Please compare his statements about oil prices and CRB Index with the historical information in the charts above. He fails to mention that oil prices are about 50% lower today than they were at their height, a few months before he started his comparison.

James Turk, founder of goldmoney.com, may be a good gold and silver salesman, but his statistical arguments are not cogent.


HARPEX Container Freight Index


HARPEX Container Freight Index

Despite a 30 day decline in the Baltic Dry Index, the container freight index is rising.

Collin Twiggs had this to say about the rising container index and steel prices today

"This leads me to believe that steel (?) (iron ore and coal?) stockpiled during the worst of the financial crisis is now being used for production, resulting in a down-turn in imports without a corresponding fall in manufactured exports — which remain in a healthy up-trend."

Gmail - Trading Diary: Commodity Exports Fall While Manufactured Exports Rise - jubjub59@gmail.com

Gmail - Trading Diary: Commodity Exports Fall While Manufactured Exports Rise - jubjub59@gmail.com