As the S&P Index has risen this year, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note has fallen. On a closer look, it seems that there is a "risk on, risk off" interconnection between the two on a daily basis going on at the moment. Let us say that when the S&P500 falls, money moves out of stocks and into bonds, thus "risk off." Bond prices go up and the yield goes down. When the stock market rallies, money moves out of bonds and into equities, "risk on." Bond prices go down (less demand) and yield goes up.
Theoretically, as the Fed buys less bonds, there should be less demand, and yields would go up. But the market may have already priced the Fed's action into the market. So today's release of the Fed's minutes, absent some surprise, should not move the market much. Risk on. Those are my thoughts before the Fed releases its September meeting minutes.
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